The context of a complex program will offer opportunities and present risks, that become obvious as things move along. These opportunities may differ in likelihood and impact, but it is important to spot them and capitalize on them to achieve objectives.

Some points:

• Change forecasting should not be used to assess risks, but also to spot opportunities too
• Designing a program for transmissivity increases the chances that it will be highly relevant
• Review and monitoring (link to 2.3) need not focus on the direct content of the program only – but should look at the context too

Tools:

• Force field analysis
• Change forecasting
• Scenario development
• Risk assessment